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Richard Feynman


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It appears that there are enormous differences of opinion as to the probability of a failure with loss of vehicle and of human life. The estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 100,000. The higher figures come from the working engineers, and the very low figures from management. What are the causes and consequences of this lack of agreement? Since 1 part in 100,000 would imply that one could put a Shuttle up each day for 300 years expecting to lose only one, we could properly ask "What is the cause of management's fantastic faith in the machinery?" …

[I]f the probability of failure was as low as 1 in 100,000 it would take an inordinate number of tests to determine it ( you would get nothing but a string of perfect flights from which no precise figure, other than that the probability is likely less than the number of such flights in the string so far). But, if the real probability is not so small, flights would show troubles, near failures, and possible actual failures with a reasonable number of trials. and standard statistical methods could give a reasonable estimate. In fact, previous NASA experience had shown, on occasion, just such difficulties, near accidents, and accidents, all giving warning that the probability of flight failure was not so very small. …

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.

Richard Feynman

Personal Observations on Reliability of Shuttle, Volume II, Appendix F to the official U.S. Government Report of the Presidential commission of the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident, issued 6 June 1986. Feynman assisted in the develpment of the atomic bomb, won the 1965 Nobel Prize in Physics, and addition to his theoretical work was a brilliant explainer of physical reality.

The Space Shuttle Main Engine is a very remarkable machine. It has a greater ratio of thrust to weight than any previous engine. It is built at the edge of, or outside of, previous engineering experience. Therefore, as expected, many different kinds of flaws and difficulties have turned up.

Richard Feynman

Personal Observations on Reliability of Shuttle, Volume II, Appendix F to the official U.S. Government Report of the Presidential commission of the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident, issued 6 June 1986. .


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